The year 2025 marks a pivotal turning point for Vietnam power sector 2025, facing a dual challenge: meeting soaring electricity demand and accelerating the shift to a more sustainable energy model. While the North is at risk of localized power shortages during the dry season, numerous key projects are being expedited to enhance supply capacity. At the same time, the rise of competitive electricity markets and clean energy prioritization is opening new growth avenues for leading enterprises.
Vietnam Power Sector 2025: A Year of Recovery and Breakthrough
According to the Ministry of Industry and Trade (MOIT), Vietnam’s total electricity consumption in 2025 is forecast to reach 342–354 billion kWh, increasing by 10.5–14.3% compared to 2024, to support a minimum GDP growth target of 8%. Meanwhile, electricity supply will grow by only 7.8%, with total installed capacity reaching approximately 94.2 GW. This results in a low reserve margin—especially in the North—at just 3–4%, with reserve capacity barely exceeding peak load by 1 GW. (Source: EVN)
In terms of generation structure, coal-fired power continues to dominate, contributing 56.5% of electricity output in Q1/2025 (up 2% YoY). However, hydropower has emerged as a key contributor amid rising fuel costs, generating 13.8 billion kWh—up 30% YoY—thanks to favorable hydrological conditions. Forecasts from NOAA suggest a high probability of La Niña returning in the second half of the year, promising increased water inflow for reservoirs, thus enabling more cost-effective hydropower generation.
Key hydropower firms such as Vinh Son – Song Hinh (VSH), Song Ba Ha Hydropower (SBH), and Central Hydropower (CHP) reported impressive profit growth in Q1. VSH recorded a net profit of VND 269 billion—152 times higher than the same period last year. Other firms such as BSA, GSM, DNH, and CHP saw profits grow by 3 to 20 times. Meanwhile, HJS and BHA continued to face difficulties due to unfavorable weather or temporary pricing mechanisms, resulting in reduced earnings. – Vietnam Power Sector 2025
In contrast, gas-fired power plants faced significant headwinds. Output in Q1/2025 dropped by 24% to 4.6 billion kWh due to higher gas input prices and declining domestic supply. Nonetheless, some producers showed signs of recovery: NT2 reversed from a VND 158 billion loss to a VND 37 billion profit, PGV improved from a VND 655 billion loss to a VND 96 billion gain, and POW stood out with VND 445 billion in net profit—up 60%—thanks to cost controls and increased financial income.
On the renewable energy front, companies like GEG reported strong earnings, with Q1/2025 net profit reaching VND 378 billion—4.2 times higher YoY—after signing a favorable PPA addendum near the price cap. PC1 and HDG also posted positive results from solar and wind energy, despite being partially affected by the real estate market and exchange rate volatility.
Electricity Stocks: Diverging Performance & Investment Potential
In addition to improved profitability, electricity sector stocks also saw notable price movements. As of May 2025, the power sector index had risen by 6.26%, slightly outperforming the VN-Index (+5.93%). VMK led the pack with a 55.33% surge, followed by DNH (+46.07%) and GEG (+31.25%). On the flip side, DTE posted the steepest decline (-26%), trailed by HIO (-20.21%), HJS (-13.33%), and HPD (-12.44%). (Source: VN index)
These movements reflect a clear divergence in investor expectations across firms—those with compelling growth stories attracted strong capital inflows, while underperforming stocks faced correction pressure.
Fuel Import Pressures Remain a Key Risk
One critical concern is the growing reliance on imported fuel. In 2024, Vietnam imported 64 million tons of coal (+24% YoY), valued at approximately USD 8 billion. Despite a 15% drop in average coal prices to USD 120/ton, import volumes are expected to rise further in 2025 to meet operational needs and stockpile around 30 million tons for the peak season.
Likewise, the average import price of LNG in Asia in 2024 hovered around USD 11.7/MMBTU. As new LNG power plants such as Nhon Trach 3 & 4 come online, the sector’s dependency on imported gas is likely to increase—especially amid global supply chain uncertainties. – Vietnam Power Sector 2025
The year 2025 presents a window of opportunity for Vietnam’s power sector to accelerate growth—particularly for firms with strengths in hydropower and renewables. However, challenges from limited supply, high input costs, and the energy transition call for faster investment, greater operational efficiency, and adaptability to an increasingly competitive market – VPNA
Article by VPNA
Vietnam Power Sector 2025
